Week 11 NFL Picks

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After a horrendous start, we’re back at it and we’re not changing a thing. Again, there are 14 games this week, one game tonight, 12 games on Sunday, and one on Monday. We’re sticking with the large 14-team parlay and few smaller parlays. Here we go!

14 legs (big parlay): $10 to win $118.19

  • Eagles (+5.5) -520
  • Lions (-3.5) -520
  • Packers (+4.5) -520
  • Rams (+4.5) -500
  • Saints (+9.5) -500
  • Vikings (+3.5) -500
  • Jets (+4.5) -500
  • Dolphins (+2.5) -500
  • Ravens (+6.5) -520
  • 49ers (+3.5) -590
  • Broncos (+7.5) -520
  • Bills (+7.5) -500
  • Chargers (+8.5) -520
  • Texans ML -360

8 Leg (medium parlay): $10 to win $34.91

  • Eagles (+5.5) -520
  • Lions (-3.5) -520
  • Packers (+4.5) -520
  • Rams (+4.5) -500
  • Saints (+9.5) -500
  • Vikings (+3.5) -500
  • Jets (+4.5) -500
  • Texans ML -360

7 Leg (medium): $10 to win $26.47

  • Dolphins (+2.5) -500
  • Ravens (+6.5) -520
  • 49ers (+3.5) -590
  • Broncos (+7.5) -520
  • Bills (+7.5) -500
  • Chargers (+8.5) -520
  • Texans ML -360

6 Leg (small parlay): $10 to win $21.19

  • Eagles (+5.5) -520
  • Lions (-3.5) -520
  • Packers (+4.5) -520
  • Rams (+4.5) -500
  • Saints (+9.5) -500
  • Texans ML -360

5 Leg (small parlay): $10 to win $16.33

  • Vikings (+3.5) -500
  • Jets (+4.5) -500
  • Dolphins (+2.5) -500
  • Ravens (+6.5) -520
  • Texans ML -360

5 Leg (small parlay): $10 to win $15.49

  • 49ers (+3.5) -590
  • Broncos (+7.5) -520
  • Bills (+7.5) -500
  • Chargers (+8.5) -520
  • Texans ML -360

My napkin math scenarios:

  • Win all 14 legs: $232.58 profit
  • Lose 1 leg: worst case – $28.29 profit; best case – $42.43 profit
  • Lose 2 legs, in separate small parlays: worst case – $1.96 profit; $16.10 profit
  • Lose 2 legs, in separate small and medium parlays: worst case – $34.51 loss; best case $28.21 loss
  • Lose 3 legs, all in separate legs: $60 loss

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