Week 12 NFL Picks

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13 legs (big parlay): $10 to win $83.39

  • Steelers (+6.5) -590
  • Vikings (+6.5) -520
  • Buccaneers (+3.5) -500
  • Dolphins (+1.5) -500
  • Texans (+2.5) -530
  • Chiefs (-2.5) -500
  • Commanders (-1.5) -500
  • Lions (+2.5) -520
  • Broncos (+4.5) -530
  • Packers (+7.5) -520
  • Seahawks (+8.5) -500
  • Eagles (+7.5) -620
  • Ravens (+7.5) -620

7 Leg (medium parlay): $10 to win $24.15

  • Steelers (+6.5) -590
  • Vikings (+6.5) -520
  • Buccaneers (+3.5) -500
  • Dolphins (+1.5) -500
  • Texans (+2.5) -530
  • Chiefs (-2.5) -500
  • Commanders (-1.5) -500

6 Leg (medium): $10 to win $17.35

  • Lions (+2.5) -520
  • Broncos (+4.5) -530
  • Packers (+7.5) -520
  • Seahawks (+8.5) -500
  • Eagles (+7.5) -620
  • Ravens (+7.5) -620

5 Leg (small parlay): $10 to win $13.71

  • Steelers (+6.5) -590
  • Vikings (+6.5) -520
  • Buccaneers (+3.5) -500
  • Dolphins (+1.5) -500
  • Texans (+2.5) -530

4 Leg (small parlay): $10 to win $10.41

  • Chiefs (-2.5) -500
  • Commanders (-1.5) -500
  • Lions (+2.5) -520
  • Broncos (+4.5) -530

4 Leg (small parlay): $10 to win $9.30

  • Packers (+7.5) -520
  • Seahawks (+8.5) -500
  • Eagles (+7.5) -620
  • Ravens (+7.5) -620

My napkin math scenarios:

  • Win all 14 legs: $158.31 profit
  • Lose 1 leg: worst case – $7.07 profit; best case – $18.27 profit
  • Lose 2 legs, in separate small parlays: worst case – $13.35 loss; $2.14 loss
  • Lose 2 legs, in separate small and medium parlays: worst case – $40.70 loss; best case $36.29 loss
  • Lose 3 legs, all in separate legs: $60 loss

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