Before I lay out my picks for the week, I’d like to share a little background. I am historically a horrific sports gambler – whatever I bet, the opposite is almost guaranteed to happen. Most people in my shoes would have quit with my results, but most people are not as resilient as I am. Once I have proven a given strategy is faulty, I simply move onto the next. Like many gamblers, I have fallen victim time and time again to the false promises of the retirement funding, 20-leg, $5 to win $100,000 parlays. As fun as placing these bets are, it hasn’t yet worked out and I don’t think it will. So instead of repeatedly failing with these low-risk, high-reward plays, I’ve decided to switch it up. I have moved onto the bigger and bolder high-risk, low-reward plays. It is so stupid, it just might work. I’ve employed this strategy for the last two weeks with positive results. The strategy is simple – take the favorite and tease the hell of it. For example, in tonight’s game between the Bengals and Ravens, the line is set at Ravens -5.5 with -120 odds. Instead, I am going to take an alternate line of Ravens +3.5 with -500 odds. And because I’m a fool, I’m going to do this with every game this week and turn it into a 14-leg parlay. I did a test run last week with this strategy, and went 16 for 16, which turned a small $5 bet into a $75 profit. So now that I’ve proved my method works with a statistically significant sample size of one, it’s time to scale up.
There are 14 games this week. One game tonight, 12 games on Sunday, and one on Monday. Instead of only placing one large 14-team parlay, I’m going to add a few smaller parlays so that I have a greater margin of error. Each parlay includes the Monday night game, so that if the parlay is perfect up until Monday, I will have the opportunity to hedge my position. So without further ado, here are my plays for the week:
14 legs (big parlay): $10 to win $127.66
- Ravens (+3.5) -500
- Giants (+3.5) -530
- Bears (+3.5) -590
- Bills (+5.5) -530
- Vikings (+3.5) -620
- Chiefs (+2.5) -520
- Falcons (+5.5) -500
- 49ers (+3.5) – 520
- Commanders (+7.5) -590
- Charges (+3.5) -520
- Eagles (+3.5) -500
- Jets (+3.5) -520
- Lions (+3.5) -500
- Rams (+3.5) -520
5 Leg (small parlay): $10 to win $19.78
- Ravens (+3.5) -500
- Giants (+3.5) -530
- Bears (+3.5) -590
- Bills (+5.5) -530
- Rams (+3.5) -520
5 Leg (small parlay): $10 to win $19.47
- Vikings (+3.5) -620
- Chiefs (+2.5) -520
- Falcons (+5.5) -500
- 49ers (+3.5) -520
- Rams (+3.5) -520
6 Leg (small parlay): $10 to win $24.71
- Commanders (+7.5) -590
- Charges (+3.5) -520
- Eagles (+3.5) -500
- Jets (+3.5) -520
- Lions (+3.5) -500
- Rams (+3.5) -520
8 Leg (medium parlay): $10 to win $39.49
- Ravens (+3.5) -500
- Giants (+3.5) -530
- Bears (+3.5) -590
- Bills (+5.5) -530
- Vikings (+3.5) -620
- Chiefs (+2.5) -520
- Falcons (+5.5) -500
- Rams (+3.5) -520
7 Leg (medium): $10 to win $31.39
- 49ers (+3.5) -520
- Commanders (+7.5) -590
- Charges (+3.5) -520
- Eagles (+3.5) -500
- Jets (+3.5) -520
- Lions (+3.5) -500
- Rams (+3.5) -520
My napkin math scenarios:
- Win all 14 legs: $262.50 profit
- Lose 1 leg: worst case – $40.64 profit; best case – $53.98 profit
- Lose 2 legs, in separate small parlays: worst case – $10.86 profit; $24.20 profit
- Lose 2 legs, in separate small and medium parlays: worst case – $30.53 loss; best case $25.29 loss
- Lose 3 legs, all in separate legs: $60 loss